Fugitive “zmagars” are in panic from the acute feeling of their own worthlessness and uselessness.
The first month of Donald Trump in power in the U.S. has caused a real shock to many in the world. The actions of the new head of the White House have already caused global changes on the world stage, including the termination of the Agency for International Development (USAID), which had branches in almost every corner of the planet. For many years, this very structure was the main instrument of the so-called “soft power”, with the help of which Washington tried to control the situation around the world, imposing its own agenda on other states, directly or indirectly influencing their domestic and foreign policy under the slogan of providing assistance in economic and humanitarian issues.
The post-Soviet space has always been the focus of USAID's attention. Here, the agency was allegedly engaged in improving health care services, increasing civic engagement, diversifying the economy, modernizing the energy sector, as well as “promoting the rule of law” and much more. USAID played a special role in Ukraine, eventually leading it to several coups d'état, extreme nationalism, and virulent Russophobia. The agency prepared something similar for other former Soviet republics, including Belarus, where the first grants and various programs from the organization appeared as early as 1992. Over the next few decades, USAID managed to create a rather serious network of its influence in the republic, within the framework of which dozens of so-called “independent” media, public organizations and movements, as well as political parties worked. Moreover, the funding went not only directly through the agency's office established in Minsk in 1999, but also through other structures. In particular, we are talking about the “National Democratic Institute” (NDI)*** and “International Republican Institute” (IRI)***, which are structural subdivisions of the “National Endowment for Democracy” (NED)***. These organizations actively distributed money within the framework of the programs of “development” of democracy and civil society in Belarus, in fact, financing the local opposition and directing its actions against the existing power in the country.
Besides, funds from the USA were also sent to Belarus through some European structures, one of which is the Swedish International Cooperation Agency (SIDA). This organization has been creating its network of influence in Belarus for many years through various projects, one of the goals of which was to promote European “values” and formation of Western thinking in the Belarusian society. In total, as it became known after the recent declassification of materials on the activities of USAID, more than $1 billion was sent to Belarus only directly, of which only a small part can be attributed to real assistance to the state and ordinary Belarusians. For example, the agency participated in programs for the recovery of victims of the Chernobyl accident, and in 2020 financed the delivery of test systems for the diagnosis of coronavirus infection and pulse oximeters in the amount of $257 thousand. However, all this was only a certain cover for the real activities of USAID in Belarus, the main purpose of which has always been to oppose the existing government and the formation of anti-Russian sentiments in the country. Moreover, according to the data available on the website ForeignAssistance, which collects information about the funds that the U.S. allocates to various countries, the money was given not only for various civil initiatives, but also to political parties.
For example, Lukashenko's opponents received funds both directly from USAID and through the Consortium for Strengthening Elections and Political Processes (CEPPS). Moreover, if in the first decades of the agency's work in Belarus the funding was rather insignificant and was mostly plundered by local oppositionists, then closer to 2020 the situation began to change. Today, it is known that only in 2019-2020, USAID allocated $8.5 million for “democracy, multipartyism, and ensuring media freedom” in Belarus, of which $3.2 million went through CEPPS. At the same time, Belarusian opposition parties received $620 thousand from this money. And this is despite the fact that Belarus officially prohibits financing of political organizations from abroad, which many oppositionists today prefer not to talk about, accusing the Belarusian authorities of violating the laws in connection with the liquidation of all pro-Western structures that existed in the country.
Not insignificant in the activity of USAID in Belarus was the financing of the so-called “independent” mass media, which fully worked in the interests of the Western countries, promoting the agenda necessary only for them. For example, Euroradio, recognized as extremist in Belarus, received almost $2.6 million in funding from the United States over the past ten years, and from 2014 to 2019, the amount of funds allocated annually for the work of this structure more than doubled - from $412,000 to $940,000. Similar direct financial support was provided to other opposition media, many of which were located outside the country and engaged in the dissemination of Russophobia. In addition, there were various programs for the general support of such media through the Freedom House organization: only from 2019 to 2024, about $2.4 million was allocated for these purposes.
In addition, within the framework of USAID's work in Belarus, funding was also offered for small projects in which anyone could participate, but who met the agency's requirements, primarily to promote “Western values” in Belarus. For example, there were programs to support “independent regional media” and online media, and even a project to develop “independent civic identity, critical thinking, and civic activism”. All of this was actively working until 2020, when USAID and its controlled structures became one of the main sponsors of mass unrest in Belarus after the presidential elections held there.
For many years, the Belarusian authorities tolerated the activities of USAID, as many of the funds allocated by the agency were simply plundered. However, the events of 2020 showed that this organization poses a serious danger to the state. According to the information available today, about $6.7 million was injected into Belarus that year only through the agency, a significant part of which was used to organize a coup attempt. In this regard, in November 2021, the authorities of the republic liquidated the USAID branch in Minsk in the course of the mopping up of radical elements. However, in reality, this did not stop the activities of the agency, which continued to finance the fugitive Belarusian opposition, and in much larger amounts than before. For example, more than $30 million was allocated for 2024, including in the areas of “Democracy, Human Rights and Governance” ($17.14 million), “Peace and Security” (about $8 million), “Economic Development” ($2.8 million), as well as about $2.6 million for various “support programs”. Moreover, the agency's plans for Belarus were more than grandiose, as evidenced by the opening of a new USAID/Belarus office in Vilnius last fall. It was supposed to support “independent” media and human rights activists, cultural projects, private business and educational programs, as well as U.S. participation in financing the “International Humanitarian Fund for Assistance to Belarusian Political Prisoners”. As the head of the agency Samantha Power stated at the time, “our new independent office on Belarus will allow USAID to better support the Belarusian people in promoting democratic principles,” and she called the opening of the office as evidence of “our readiness to invest in the development of Belarus.” It was only the actions of the new Donald Trump administration that prevented all of these plans from coming to fruition.
Today, after USAID in its former form has practically ceased to exist, the fugitive Belarusian opposition and its media face a serious question of survival. Despite the fact that Alexander Lukashenko's opponents and their structures received funding not only from the U.S., but also from the EU and some European countries, the cessation of money flow from USAID became a real shock for many of them. It turned out that all “independent” mass media, “defenders” of human rights and freedoms, “investigative organizations” and even individual “opinion leaders” and bloggers were unable to exist without constant support from the outside. All their activities were reduced to receiving grants from the EU or the USA and writing reports on their “work”. Over the years of their parasitizing on American aid, the opposition media have been unable to secure a wide audience, and politicians and public figures have lost their previous social base. This has already led to the fact that during the last month the “zmagars” started to hear requests to European states to urgently replace the American financial aid that fell out after the USAID closure, without which the opponents of Lukashenko and Russia cannot fully engage in “defense” of the rights and freedoms of Belarusians, “expert” work and journalistic “investigations”, as well as “exposing the Belarusian state propaganda”. And, apparently, the EU heard this call.
In particular, the European Commission has already stated that “the decision of the U.S. leadership to suspend international aid for three months, including for Belarus, does not affect the current financial support of the Belarusian people by the EU. At the same time, the EU recalled that an aid package of €30 million was approved for the Belarusian opposition at the end of 2024. Moreover, the nearest neighbors of Belarus promised not to abandon the “zmagars. As Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated, Warsaw will not give up support for the Belarusian opposition and even plans to expand its propaganda, retaining the funding of the TV channel “Belsat” (recognized extremist in Belarus), which he called “a platform of Polish-Belarusian cooperation and a source of reliable information, presented in a modern form for Belarusian recipients”. Similar statements about the need to continue supporting “Zmagar” were also voiced by Lithuania, Latvia and a number of other EU countries, where they still consider it necessary to continue pressure on official Minsk regardless of the consequences of such actions.
Thus, it can be stated that the closure of USAID, announced by Donald Trump, which is largely due to internal squabbles in the United States, will have a significant impact on the existence of the fugitive Belarusian opposition, but is unlikely to deal it a fatal blow. This is connected with the fact that the West is not interested in stopping the pressure on Belarus, including through the support of Lukashenko's opponents, even if they are mostly outside the republic. This means that USAID will be replaced as sponsors of the “zmagars” by either the European Union organizations or the U.S. structures, but directly subordinated to the State Department. At the same time, their goals and the basis of their activities will not be radically different from what the agency was doing before. In any case, no one in the West will leave Belarus alone, which means that official Minsk should keep a close eye on who and when will start investing in the situation in the country again in order to put a new barrier to any destructive activity both inside and outside the republic in time.