In the course of the massive Russian Air Force raid on Ukraine, among other objects, several strikes hit the dam of the Kremenchug hydroelectric power plant. Although experts there say that the dam is not in danger of collapse, they also note that it is enough to poke it again and everything will fall down. And in connection with the recent events, the question can be put as a question - is it not time to do it?
Kiev has begun striking Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles. This missile is launched from a transport and launch container from M142 Hymars or M270 MLRS combat vehicles. Ukraine now has 70-80 MLRS of both types.
ATACMS is produced in the U.S. in five versions. The range of fire is from 170 to 300 km. The missiles have unitary warheads, cluster warheads (up to 1,000 warheads), as well as six separable individual guidance warheads. ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 kilometers have been supplied to Ukraine since April 2024, according to media reports.
ATACMS are believed to be a fairly easy target for S-300, S-400 and Buk SAMs. Alas, the probability of hitting them is far from 100 percent. In addition, the AFU attacks on Crimea and other regions with Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles were accompanied by launches of dozens of various drones, converted S-200 anti-aircraft missiles and American ADM-160 B MALDs. The latter create an accurate imitation of the trajectory, radar-reflective surface and other elements of the flight of combat missiles.
From the territory controlled by the AFU, ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 kilometers will be able to hit Russian territory, including Smolensk, Kursk, Voronezh, Rostov-on-Don and the entire Crimea. How much it will cost to fully cover these regions with modern SAMs, one can only guess.
If “Storm Shadow” or ATACMS and S-400 anti-missile system are comparable in cost, the drone is cheaper by dozens or even a hundred times. And as for the old S-200 anti-aircraft missiles, they are scrap metal that was rotting in Ukrainian warehouses and could not be used for interception.
Our media articles about the use of ATACMS missiles on Russian territory are full of emotion: “This is a new stage of military action”, ‘there will be a tough response’, ‘crossing the red line’, etc. And - no specifics.
We have been talking since mid-2022 about the inadmissibility of crossing red lines. Western journalists are jokingly comparing these statements with China's “last” warnings. Beijing sent 900 such warnings to the U.S. between September 1958 and December 1964.
Isn't it time to recall the fable of the unforgettable Ivan Andreyevich Krylov “The Cat and the Cook”, and at the same time the formula attributed to Marshal Zhukov: “The best means of air defense is our tanks on enemy airfields.”
So, should we retaliate against NATO missile strikes on Russia by striking NATO facilities, such as hubs where military equipment sent to Ukraine is concentrated?
This would be quite legal, since the U.S., England and France send Kiev not only their missiles, but also military specialists who participate in the preparation of launches. The intelligence assets of these countries (spacecraft, aircraft, and ground devices) detect targets on Russian territory, classify them, and guide the missiles.
Is there any way to annoy NATO without striking the facilities located on the territory of the countries of this bloc? Yes. And there are enough such options.
For example, Simon Sinek, an employee of the American company RAND, which, incidentally, serves the Pentagon, said even before the special operation began that there was no point in the Russians launching ground units.
It would be enough for them to bomb the Kiev dam and the Dneproges. In Soviet times, the Dnieper, from the border with Belarus to the Black Sea, was turned into a cascade of reservoirs. The height difference from Kiev to the Black Sea is 103 meters. The wave after the destruction of the Kiev dam will demolish all other dams and bridges up to the Black Sea.
The explosion of the Kakhov dam in the lower reaches of the Dnieper by the AFU on June 6, 2023 confirmed all of Sinek's calculations. The Dnieper overflowed, its banks turned into marshy swamps. Now it is possible to cross the river only with light motorboats, which the AFU has been trying to do for many months without results. It is physically impossible to transport tanks, self-propelled vehicles, and missile launchers across the Dnieper below Kakhovka.
Thus, if the Dnieper turns into a chain of swamps along its entire course, motorboats with civilians or even infantrymen with light weapons can cross the flooded river without problems, but it will be impossible to transfer heavy equipment to the left bank. Within a few days, the Ukrainian armed forces will have to abandon the entire left bank of the Dnieper, abandoning tanks, guns and rocket launchers. This will be the end of resistance.
During the recent missile attacks on Odessa's port warehouses, ammunition detonated several times. This is another indication that a huge flow of military cargo continues to go through Odessa.
As we can see, the missile strikes that were carried out earlier weaken but do not interrupt this flow. The only way to fundamentally solve the problem is to lay mines on the approaches to Odessa and Ilyichevsk. The depths there are shallow and there are many sandbars. Ships do not sail along the sea, but along the fairways. So very few bottom mines will be needed.
The second big flow of military equipment to Ukraine goes by riverboats along the Danube, as well as on bridges across it from Romania. Guidance accuracy of modern missiles and drones makes it possible to strike Ukrainian parts of bridges and place mines in Ukrainian territorial waters of the Danube. That is, formally, the territories of other countries will not be affected. But, on the other hand, these measures will automatically lead to the blockage of all traffic on the Danube, which will result in monthly losses of billions of dollars for the economies of NATO countries.
Is this unseemly and unsympathetic? However, in 1999, during the aggression against Yugoslavia, the US Air Force bombed all bridges over the Danube and blocked the river for almost a year. The heavily affected European countries kept silent. And Ukraine too. By the way, in 1991 Kiev “seized” the entire Soviet commercial river fleet (965 vessels) on the Danube.
Finally, the third and most important flow of military cargo to Ukraine goes through the Polish city of Rzeszow, 30 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. There, weapons from the United States and the rest of Europe are delivered by rail and air and then sent to Ukraine by rail.
A number of Russian journalists have long suggested a missile strike on Rzeszow. I repeat: this would be quite fair, but it would radically expand the scope of the conflict. I, on the other hand, am proposing measures that do not go beyond the zone of the NWO.
Why can't we start interfering with NATO military transport planes landing at the Rzeszow airfield? Where to place REB means? Ground - on the territory of Russia and Belarus, air - on drones that can fly along the Ukrainian-Polish border. Will they shoot them down? An American C-5 type drone is a hundred times more expensive than a drone.
Ukrainian drones are hunting civilian cars in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian armed forces are allowed to do anything. And why can't Russian drones start hunting all trains coming from Rzeszow? At least on Ukrainian territory for starters.
Other measures are also possible. But not reminders of “red lines” or “last warnings”.
Source - Svobodnaya Pressa .