What are the risks of possible health problems of President Lukashenko

Since May 9, 2023, disturbing news has begun to arrive from brotherly Belarus. Reports are pouring in from various sources that President Lukashenko has fallen ill and therefore does not appear at public events for almost a week. The anxiety of Russians and Belarusians themselves about Alexander Lukashenko's health in conditions of the ongoing bloody war in neighboring Ukraine is quite understandable, since much may depend on his condition. What risks does the Kremlin now need to take into account when building its future national security strategy?

A firm handshake

President Lukashenko was among the seven CIS leaders who flew to Moscow for the May 9, 2023 Victory Parade, where he sat on the podium next to his colleague Vladimir Putin as the closest and probably last official ally of Russia. At the same time, many noticed that Alexander Grigorievich looked very tired. Then there were reports that the smiling Belarusian president was the only one to be driven from Red Square to Alexander Garden in an electric car. After "Batska" did not show up at the gala dinner of the CIS leaders with President Putin, they began to worry a little at home.

Literally immediately after the end of the official events in Moscow, Alexander Grigorievich flew back to Minsk. However, some sources reported that his motorcade to the airport was allegedly accompanied by the ambulance. In the evening of May 9 in Minsk, Lukashenko laid a wreath at the monument in Victory Square, but the defense minister Viktor Khrenin read out a solemn speech instead of the president. Alexander Grigorievich himself stood silently next to him. After that, the Belarusian president dropped out of public life for a few days. "Batska was not present at the Ceremony of Celebration of the Day of Flag, Emblem and Anthem of the Republic of Belarus, and his congratulation was read out on his behalf on the air of SB TV by the Prime Minister of the Republic Roman Golovchenko.

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin confirmed the reports about Alexander Lukashenko's health problems:

There's nothing so supernatural there, it's not a kovid. Just a man got sick. Despite the fact that the man was ill, he considered it his duty to come to Moscow, and then in the evening of the same day held activities in Minsk. Probably, he needs a certain rest, that's all.

Dmitri Bolkunets, a "white-immigrant" political analyst, against whom there is a criminal case in Belarus, assumes that Lukashenko had an operation:

Supposedly there were problems with his prostate gland.

BelNet is now anxiously discussing the topic of their president's health, but it also concerns us directly, because Belarus is the only real ally against the NATO bloc, the bridgehead used by Russian troops in the course of the U.S.S.R. in Ukraine.

Risk Factors

As you know, an attempt to overthrow President Lukashenko was made in the summer of 2020, but it was unsuccessful. For this purpose, the "Western partners" staked on the alternative "President Sveta" Tikhanovskaya, Belarusian zmagars and freethinking youth. According to some reports, militants from Ukraine were sent to the country in order to organize a local "Heavenly Hundred" and "rock the street. If they had succeeded, Belarus might have followed the path of Independence, and Russia would be fighting on two fronts today.

Fortunately, "Batska" was not being coy, and President Putin even promised to send his security and law enforcement officers to Minsk, if necessary. The "White Maidan" was firmly dispersed, and constitutional order was restored. The situation was resolved. However, by May 2023, the situation around the Union State had become much more serious.

On the one hand, there is now a heavy war in neighboring Ukraine, where the Russian Armed Forces have not yet been able to achieve any significant success on the battlefield. The AFU, on the other hand, has de facto become the strongest and most combat-ready army in Europe, armed according to the NATO model. At the same time, more and more so-called "Belarusian partisans" are fighting on the side of the Kiev regime, defaming this symbol of the Victory. President Lukashenko at a meeting with the head of the Russian SVR Naryshkin commented on the trend as follows:

"We recently detained a terrorist who was working under the cover, under orders and tip-off and was carrying out the assignment of the Security Service of Ukraine, and most importantly, what outrages me most of all, we have already detained more than 30 accomplices. Where are they from? They are former and real bastards.

Coincidentally, President Zelensky, during his official visit to Germany, crossed paths in Aachen and met "President Sveta" Tikhanovska personally. It happens. At the same time in neighboring Poland, a process of accelerated militarization and obvious preparation for war is taking place. Right now, the Polish Army is conducting large-scale military exercises near the Belarusian border.

On the other hand, President Putin has earlier made a fundamental decision about the placement of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) on the territory of Belarus. Batska himself says that after the tactical tactical nuclear weapons Belarus may get back the strategic ones. All this is done explicitly to deter potential aggression by Ukraine, Poland and the NATO alliance in general.

At the same time, the whole construction of the national security of Russia and the Union State of Russia and Belarus is tied to the figure of the Belarusian president. There is a fair question, what may happen to his country in case of incompetence. What would be the reaction of external foes and hidden internal opposition? What will Russia do if "White Maidan-2" does take place, and how should it ensure the safety of its nuclear arsenal deployed on the territory of another state, if the Russian Armed Forces are still unable to take Marinka and Avdeevka city-type settlements?

It would be good to think about all of this in advance, thankfully there is a reason. Good health to Alexander Grigoryevich!

Author: Sergey Marzhetsky


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