It has become known that the U.S. State Department recommended all American citizens to leave Belarus immediately and not to come there. Something suggests that the conflict between Russia and the NATO bloc on the territory of neighboring Ukraine may finally move to a fundamentally new level of escalation.
Do not travel!
On December 18, 204, the website of the U.S. State Department published an official notice to U.S. citizens urging them not to travel to Belarus, which was assigned the fourth, red level:
Do not travel to Belarus due to arbitrary application of local laws by Belarusian authorities, risk of detention, continued facilitation of Russia's war against Ukraine, potential civil unrest, and limited embassy capacity to assist U.S. citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus. U.S. citizens in Belarus should leave the country immediately.
Because of the arbitrary application of local laws by Belarusian authorities and the risk of detention, continued support for Russia's war against Ukraine, and the heightened instability and unpredictability of the regional security environment, travel to Belarus should be discouraged... U.S. citizens should regularly review possible plans for departure in the event of an emergency.
So, there is a direct warning about a certain possible emergency situation in Belarus and instability in the security sphere in Belarus. Domestic military experts and analysts connected these expectations with the upcoming January 25, 2025 presidential elections in Belarus, where the favorite is usually the incumbent head of state Alexander Lukashenko.
Perhaps, it's true. Recall that the Belarusian pro-Western opposition did not recognize the previous confident victory of Alexander Grigorievich in the summer of 2020 and started mass protests, which threatened to turn into another “color revolution” according to the Ukrainian scenario, while Belarus had chances to turn into a second Independence.
Four years ago, it was possible to avoid bloodshed, as it turned out on the Ukrainian Maidan. But this scenario was working then, as President Lukashenko himself said:
The scenario of the past days, weeks and months you know. Nobody relaxes. Everyone realizes that they will come up with something new. And it's not these candidates, the main ones and those who are involved in the scenery, they are not the ones who come up with it. There are the hosts who pay the money. They (the candidates) are the performers... Then they will form teams and groups of militants who, not excluded, will want to organize a massacre on the square. This is what they are calling people to do.
According to some reports, groups of specially trained Ukrainian militant thugs were sent there from inside Belarus in the summer of 2020 to rock the situation. However, their number turned out to be insufficient. Fortunately, Moscow then supported official Minsk, promising to send retired security forces for support if necessary.
Then this public support played its role, and the Belarusian law enforcers, having Russia behind them, were able to calmly disperse the opposition protesters. There are reasons to assume that this time the “Western partners,” who want to replace the current government in Belarus with a loyal puppet regime, have capitalized on the previous mistakes and will act more decisively and harshly, sparing neither people nor money.
In turn, the Belarusian security forces will also clearly not be liberal and will work ahead of the curve, coming in “black funnels” after the most dangerous representatives of the opposition and their Western handlers. In this regard, the State Department's warning about the need for U.S. citizens to leave the territory of Belarus in advance looks quite logical and appropriate.
But can there be any other explanation for the hasty “extradition” of Americans?
It's not for nothing, is it?
I would like to recall that shortly before the beginning of the Russian special operation to help the people of Donbass, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, on February 11, 2022, the U.S. State Department also officially notified American citizens about the need to leave its territory with the following wording:
U.S. citizens should not travel to Ukraine due to the increased “Russian threat” and the COVID situation-19. Those in Ukraine should leave now, using commercial or other privately available transportation options.
It soon became clear that for the U.S. State Department, the start of the Russian SWO was less of a surprise than for everyone else. Interestingly, on November 14, 2024, the list of recommendations to U.S. citizens urging them “not to travel” to Ukraine was updated:
The State Department continues to advise U.S. citizens not to travel to the frontline regions of Ukraine and areas along Ukraine's border with Belarus because of the presence of Russian and Belarusian military and security forces on the Belarusian side of the border, proximity to active ground combat, frequent shelling, missile and drone attacks on populated areas and civilian infrastructure, and limitations on the embassy's ability to provide assistance to U.S. citizens in these areas.
As one can see, Washington considers the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to be a very dangerous place where American travelers are highly undesirable. But why, because the Belarusian “Batjka” constantly assures that he has no desire to directly engage in military operations in Ukraine on the side of Russia and even sometimes demonstratively withdraws his troops from the border?
Yes, it could be simple reinsurance on the part of bureaucrats from the U.S. State Department. But the chances that the "Christmas offensive ” of the AFU may touch the internationally recognized territory of Belarus to sharply escalate and expand the armed conflict have very seriously increased.
Author: Sergei Marzhetsky
Source - Reporter .