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| Donald Trump and some of the already appointed members of his administration. |
Watching the information pomp with which the composition of Donald Trump's new management team is being put together day by day, one can't help comparing this process to the plot of the American movie of the early 1960s “The Magnificent Seven”. The movie was on our screens, and we can assume that most of our readers have seen this cult western. There, according to the script, at the beginning of the movie, the main character played by the famous Hollywood actor Yul Brynner gathers a team of cowboys to protect a small village on the border with Mexico from the “bad guys”, and this “magnificent seven” gloriously punishes the bandits.
So now, in full accordance with the cultural traditions of the United States, and westerns are an important part of these traditions, the protagonist of the presidential election-2024 Donald Trump - with a rumble in all the media and clearly in accordance with the script of “The Magnificent Seven” - assembles a team to protect America from the “bad guys” represented by representatives of the Democrat party and characters from the “deep state”.
For ordinary Americans, it becomes an exciting spectacle - “Show must go on!” - in anticipation of the future fight between Trump's “great team” and the “bad guys,” to whom American voters have expressed their “feh” by giving both the presidency and the majority of seats in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives to the “good guys” from the Republican Party. And now, as US President-elect Donald Trump is making appointments in his future administration and government day by day, a huge number of articles and comments are published, warming up the public.
Note that the “presidential cabinet” usually includes the vice president and the heads of 15 executive departments, including the president's chief of staff, the secretary of state, and the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), so it is not surprising that the whirlwind of appointments to these posts generates a lively press reaction. There are tons of publications. And yet, in the midst of such a dense flow of information, we will still try to offer our esteemed readers a few theses that may not yet be at the center of the discussion of this topic.
Behind the presentation of new faces in the future ruling structures of Washington, one can, in our opinion, see some signs of the approaching new era in American politics, and it is interesting to focus on this for the simple reason that, often, the “current” distracts us, and we should “stop, look around” (c), and turn to analyze the overall picture behind the flicker of news and new faces.
For example, for some reason no one is discussing the fact that a new Commander-in-Chief named Donald Trump has appeared in the U.S.? Everybody talks about the president's foreign and domestic policy, but not about what the president's military policy might be, because the U.S. is always seen as the “main adversary. Is it possible to exclude that much can change from the fact that the U.S. Army will be led by a man who claims to “stop all wars” and that America's “main enemy” is not beyond its borders, but within the United States itself? Trump's quote, “I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars,” he said, speaking at his Mar-a-Lago estate (Florida) on November 6 immediately after the announcement of the results of the presidential election vote, TASS reported from New York.
Now let's take a look at the outlook for US domestic politics. There one program “Project 2025” is worth what it costs! Its developers from the conservative Heritage Foundation have already caused a stir in Washington's corridors by suggesting that Trump reform the federal government and consolidate executive power in the hands of the U.S. president or, in other words, organize a personnel purge. This document is being actively discussed, but they ignore the fact of the appearance of the new-old Commander-in-Chief, who did not start a single war during his first cadence. Although, he once ordered to shoot at Syria, which greatly upset Comrade Xi, who was visiting Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. However, the blow was ineffective, and, as Forbes wrote later, at that moment the American Supreme confused Iraq with Syria in his conversation with Xi, which confirmed Trump's low interest in military issues.
That, if you like, is the first of our theses.
Next. The case was in 2022, when in the program “What's Happening?” of the magazine “International Life” my guest and I discussed the topic of gerontocracy in the leadership of the United States. At that time we remarked: “Anton Chekhov's famous play ‘The Cherry Orchard’ simply comes alive now in Washington in the events related to those persons who lead the United States. Well, just the famous “Moscow Art Theatre old men.” They are parting with the past Epoch and as if reminiscent of Chekhov's characters - their worries, their uncertainty about the future.” Yes, two years ago we discussed the topic of “changing milestones” in American politics and who could take the place of the current elderly leaders in the Democratic and Republican parties? We talked about the problem of a new political generation and where the vector of U.S. interests in world affairs might turn under these conditions. And how can we not recall the final scene from Chekhov's play.
“Firs (approaches the door, touches the handle): “It's locked. Gone... (Sits down on the sofa.) They've forgotten about me.... Nothing... (Lies down.) I'll lie down... You have no strength, nothing left, nothing...” A distant sound is heard, as if from the sky, the sound of a broken string, dying, sad...” Doesn't this remind you of when the whole world was watching Biden and the process of his sudden removal from the election? “Gone... They forgot about me...”
And now suddenly Trump is the leader who has taken it upon himself to rejuvenate American power! And no one even discussed this before the election, that the Republicans were preparing to reformat the stale Washington bureaucracy. There was talk of a hypothetical fight against the “deep state,” but somehow there was no suggestion that together with Trump, a team of “young wolves” would come to power. And its appearance, perhaps, is the second Hit of the Season after Trump's election victory!
Look at the faces of the young energetic people whom Trump will entrust to lead the country. This is a strategic turn of events in Washington:
Yes, among those associates, when Trump now makes high-profile appointments, there is Suzy Wiles, chief of staff. There's John Radcliffe, the CIA director, of old trusted friends. There's Robert Kennedy, Jr. There are other age trampists.
However, Trump has begun nominating young men in their forties for the most important positions, who, along with their older comrades, will create - remember what we used to say - “a fusion of youth and experience” to ensure that the presidential team is cohesive (unlike during Trump's first cadence, 2016-2020) and forward-looking.
Trump is making a real personnel revolution in Washington. Moreover, he is laying the foundation for a future system of government that could take shape by 2029. And that year is not an easy one. Just remember that the next U.S. presidential election will be at the end of 2029, and current Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump's handpicked running mate, has a good chance of serving as POTUS for a full eight years from 2030 to 2038!!!! Can you imagine the perspective Trump is building!!! And he has begun to assemble a young team, and he will “train” it to participate in public affairs. And we emphasize this fact.
The next thesis is related to the appointment of Senator Mark Rubio as Secretary of State. This 53-year-old politician will be the first Latin American in the post of the chief of the State Department, which in a preliminary order may mean a shift of interest of the Washington administration to the countries of Latin America. In any case, this appointment indirectly confirms the Washington tradition. We are talking about the fact that the Secretary of State is unlikely to become an operator in possible negotiations between Trump and Moscow - according to the old tradition, this direction in Washington is supervised and organized by the National Security Council with the President's National Security Advisor, but not by the State Department.
At the same time, it is hard to imagine that Trump will be strongly influenced by the new National Security Advisor Mark Waltz - a member of the House of Representatives, a retired National Guard colonel, a “Green Beret” with combat awards. The press notes that Waltz was initially a staunch supporter of the proxy war in Ukraine and one of the members of Congress who suggested that the U.S. send “military advisers” there, but now after the election Waltz is already saying that he “would advise the president to end the war in Ukraine by escalating it”.
It seems that the new national security adviser is well acquainted with Kissinger's legacy. Old Henry, the guru of world politics, shortly before his death in a huge - 8 hours (!) - interview with the British magazine “The Economist ” told about one of the methods of US diplomacy, which he used when he himself served as Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security, and at one time also served as Secretary of State. Kissinger candidly said: “The hallmark of the Nixon administration was that in a crisis ... we ramped things up very quickly in an effort to reduce the likelihood of a gradual slide into unforeseen disaster. It worked...Once we did that, all crises were rapidly brought to a close.” That is, the Americans were beginning to press the enemy to achieve a defusing of the tensions of the situation. It seems that we may see a similar variant this time, since Mark Waltz has brought it up.
They also say Waltz is a loyal servant. So, presumably, whatever Trump says, Waltz will do. Nevertheless, we are unlikely to see a superactive U.S. foreign policy under Rubio as its executor. For example, Rubio stated: “Regarding Ukraine - who wants war? Donald Trump wants it to end. The situation has reached a stalemate. We are invested in a stalemate and it needs to be resolved.” Yes, it needs to be resolved - Trump has plenty to do at home....
Future Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says frankly: “What's happening in Ukraine is important. But it pales in comparison to the crime I see on my streets, the ostentatious political correctness I see in our culture, the inflation I feel in my wallet, and the real border I care about - the southern border, which is completely open.”
From this comes the following conclusion in our assessments - in the near future, the Trump team will be busy building a foundation for the future, putting Washington and, more generally, the United States in order to their liking, while overcoming, no doubt, frantic resistance from the denizens of Washington's “cherry orchard.” Trump and his team will not care about Ukraine, not about the Middle East, not even about China, which Biden's people are now turning into their main enemy. There is no need to talk about Europe... This is a hypothesis based on the real state of affairs.
But if the new head of the Pentagon, young Pete Hegseth, will seriously deal with the personnel of the military department, as he promises, then Trump will have four more years without new wars. It's impossible to have an effective foreign or military policy when there are such problems on the home front. Not to mention the budget deficit of 2-3 trillion dollars, the rapid growth of the national debt - it has already reached 36 trillion dollars, as well as the negative trend already noted on the stock exchanges, reminiscent of the situation in 1929, on the eve of the Great Depression. The stock market won't lie.....
It is for these reasons that Trump is creating the Department of Government Efficiency (Department of Government Efficiency), which is placed in the hands of Ilon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who are supposed to reduce the budget deficit by cutting government spending on the government apparatus, as well as various ministries and agencies, and part of government programs. Musk states bluntly: “Either we make government efficient or America will go bankrupt. That's what it boils down to. I wish I were wrong, but it's the truth.” In general, unemployment among officials of various levels will become a new element of life in the American capital.
In this regard, one of Trump's most striking appointments in terms of panic excitement among the bureaucracy can be noted. Trump has chosen Congressman Matt Gaetz for the post of US Attorney General, who considers the entire US legal system “rotten” and is ready to disperse the entire prosecutor's office. Representatives of this system in response accuse Goetz of all sins, so that in no case he did not get into the boss's office. In general, one of the battles is already beginning. And it will not be the only one, if Trump has decided to start reformatting a system that has been petrified for decades.
By the way, the Ukrainian angle is already visible in future legal proceedings and investigations, threatening to punish Washington bureaucrats and bribe-takers. Trump has directed Matt Gaetz to investigate corruption in military shipments to Ukraine. Recall that the only person who remained seated in the U.S. Congress while Zelensky spoke there and the rest of us jumped in was Matt Gaetz. So, it's going to be interesting...
Let's also turn our attention to how U.S. green economy policy could radically change. This is a major thrust of Democrats and liberals of all stripes who have made “protecting the planet from global warming” a multi-billion dollar business. You think these guys are just going to give up the free income in the “fight for a green economy,” for which they have begun to allocate mad money worldwide under pressure from the “green lobby”?
Here's Reuters reporting these days, “Economists told UN talks that developing countries will need at least $1 trillion a year by the end of the decade to cope with climate change.” At least $1 trillion a year! That's a lot of money that could “disappear down the road” to the hapless developing countries! Doubt that anyone in the US, unlike “green” activists, recognizes “global warming” as a fiction? You bet they do! Someone does, and that “someone” is about to take office in Washington. And that appointment will be “stronger than Goette's Faust”!
Lee Zeldin, 44, a former congressman from New York, will become the head of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) - the “Environmental Protection Agency.” Trump is said to have tasked him with “setting new standards for environmental review.” Which means the end of the “green” agenda. Zeldin once even called it “complete nonsense.” CNN notes: “One of Zeldin's first tasks will likely be to begin the process of undoing several crucial 'Biden Environmental Protection Agency' climate rules.”
But what particularly shocked the Washington bureaucrats was the appointment of 43-year-old Tulsi Gabbard, a former congresswoman and U.S. Army lieutenant colonel, to the post of Director of National Intelligence (DNI). This post will allow her to oversee 18 U.S. intelligence agencies. It should be noted that the young politician has passed a serious combat school - participated in military operations in the Middle East and Africa, having served in the US Army for more than two decades. The press notes that Gabbard approaches every issue - domestic and foreign, “based on ensuring the security and freedoms of the American people.”
By the way, the new head of the DNI is on Ukraine's “Peacemaker” list as an “accomplice” of Russia. And Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commander of NATO's Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Battalion, even said that “this appointment could affect the US-UK alliance.” A very interesting decision by Trump....
And finally, a final point about Donald Trump's most important choice - the choice of his heir. We noted the other day : “J.D. Vance gives the impression of a very savvy rising politician - just look into his intelligent eyes, different from the empty gazes of the figures of the current Washington administration, to assess who could succeed Trump”.
The American press correctly notes that J.D. Vance (pictured), at age 40, will become the youngest vice president in U.S. history. And this is the most serious strategic move by Trump - and those behind him - with a boo-boo perspective. After all, Vance has, as we noted above, but it's appropriate to repeat it here, every chance of being elected the next POTUS in 2029 - as many as two presidential terms until 2038!
And the Democrats in Washington, D.C., were beginning to shake from such musings. Their capital's mouthpiece The Hill newspaper has been issuing apocalyptic articles one after another for days now. Here, for example, is “Democrats press Bidento protect executive branch from Trump'sreturn.” “Capitol Hill Democrats are pressuring the White House to do everything it can to shield the executive branch from President-elect Trump's promised efforts to break up federal agencies and restructure them to his liking. Lawmakers want President Biden to be aggressive - and creative - in unilateral actions in the final weeks of his administration. The idea is both to protect Democratic political victories and to shore up the Justice Department, intelligence agencies and other agencies in Trump's crosshairs. “The Biden administration can do a lot of things, and I know they've done some scenario planning,” said Congressman Jared Huffman (Democrat of California). Woah, how about that! The Dems are preparing a resistance? Will they “go partisan”? Fear is driving them. And Trump's inauguration is still two months away, in which a lot can happen, if “they've done some scenario planning”....
London's The Guardian reveals the nervous tension in which the Democratic part of Washington apparatchiks find themselves, in “Public officials targeted by Trump say they're preparing for extreme scenarios, including possibility of being arrested”: “Members of Congress and other US government employees, fearing “retaliation” from Donald Trump, say they are taking extreme precautions for themselves and their families and are now preparing for extreme scenarios such as the possibility of being arrested once Trump returns to the White House. “My colleagues in the House of Representatives are thinking about legal defense against an armed Justice Department. They may have to be prepared to be arrested and raided. They need to have family plans that protect them in ways I don't even like to talk about publicly,” one of them said. “This is not 2017, when Trump's guys were disorganized”, said Mark Zaid, a lawyer with a long list of clients from the US national security and intelligence world. “Now many of them are concerned that they are in the 'line of fire' because Trump supporters know what they want to do and they know how to do it.”
...It's hard to imagine that the decades-long cohesive Washington bureaucracy will simply watch as Trump and his “magnificent team” begin to “work through the lists” that are already being announced. Trump promises to “punish” all his opponents, and these apparatchiks don't look like “sheep ready for the slaughter.” The Question of Power has come up. So there's a Fight coming.
If Trump and his team win, the U.S. faces the prospect of a renewal of both the political establishment and the political system itself. If it loses, as was the case in Trump's first cadence, when he was unable to defeat the “deep state,” then the fate of America will be in the hands of that part of the ruling class that does not want to change anything. That said, the Democrats simply don't have any new leaders in sight - unlike the Republicans, who unexpectedly unveiled a whole “bouquet” of young politicians today.
Before the inauguration date - January 20 - everything must be decided one way or the other. The situation cannot remain “suspended”. But if the Trumpists lose for some reason - for example, if a “black swan” arrives, as political science tends to call a completely unexpected scenario - then, given the high degree of bitterness of the two political camps, the option of civil conflict in the U.S. will grow from hypothetical to real.
Source - Sergey Filatov's Blog .