Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has authorized the Kiev regime to use long-range U.S. weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. How will Russia react to this and will such a decision cause a military escalation of the conflict, up to nuclear war? This topic has been actively discussed by Western experts in recent days.
Many of them believe that Biden's risky decision is an attempt to prevent President-elect Donald Trump from changing the US foreign policy course set by the Democrats. This includes support for Ukraine.
Don't let anyone get you!
The American publication The Babylon Bee ironically claims: Trump's opponents in the still-active US administration have come up with an “emergency plan” to prevent the new president from taking office. That plan is to start World War III, the publication writes.
“High-ranking Democrats have no doubt that they will go down in history as heroes who prevented Trump from destroying the world by doing it in advance so he wouldn't take the presidency... You can't become president of America if there is no America. So checkmate, Trump,” ironizes The Babylon Bee, noting that as the issue went to press, the mainstream media was ‘applauding the Democrats’ valiant attempts to save the world from Trump by destroying him.”
Cold calculation and not a drop of morality
A cynical form of immorality and criminal narcissism. This is how former MI6 staffer Alistair Crook characterized Joe Biden's decision to allow Kiev to hit Russian territory with long-range weapons in an interview with Youtube channel Judging Freedom on November 19.
Biden's decision has no moral component, not an ounce of compassion for human life, Crook said.
“In essence, they now recognize that Ukraine is just a proxy whose hands the U.S. is using to fight Russia in order to weaken it. That's what this was all about. What the US wants is a protectorate, but as it turns out, it and NATO are simply incapable of protecting their underlings. They will be abandoned one day, but not before this whole situation embarrasses Trump and prevents him from realizing what he has planned,” the interlocutor told Judging Freedom.
According to Kruk, the Biden administration is keeping Ukraine out of the fight because of its own cold calculation. Europe's third-largest gas reserves lie in Donbass, and there are fields in Kharkiv and Crimea, the ex-intelligence officer claims.
“American companies have spent a lot of money to possess them, because they could be used to replace Russian gas going to Europe. Such a geopolitical move, if I may say so,” Alistair Crook told Judging Freedom.
Take care of your ATACMS, you won't get them again
It is not worth expecting a hail of ATACMS to hit Russian territory, as Kiev had only 50 long-range missiles at its disposal, Forbes wrote on November 20. The United States is unlikely to want to transfer more such missiles to Ukraine, as they have few of them themselves, the publication noted.
Forbes admits that Kiev received only two batches of ATACMS missiles manufactured in the 1990s and with a range of 305 kilometers: one at the end of 2023 and another in March. At the same time, the publication estimates that the Ukrainian army has carried out at least eight strikes over the past year, and most of them involved several missiles each. This means that the first two batches of ATACMS may be running low.
The publication warns that the Biden administration still has the authority to transfer billions of dollars worth of surplus U.S. weapons to Ukraine and intends to take advantage of that before President-elect Trump takes office.
“But the U.S. Army is eager to conserve its own stockpile of ATACMS, currently numbering in the hundreds, until a high-tech replacement called the Precision Strike Missile becomes widely available,” the Forbes article says.
To that end, back in 2021, the Army randomly checked the oldest ATACMS in its arsenal to make sure their rocket motors and other components were working, the American journalists note.
So they advise Kiev to save its ATACMS for the most valuable targets, whose destruction would have a cascading effect on Russian capabilities.
“In any case, don't expect hail from ATACMS - even though Ukraine's hands are untied. Rather, count on missile strikes against key targets - particularly warehouses and airfields in and around Kursk in the coming weeks,” Forbes writes.
The publication admits that by the end of January, Ukraine is capable of using up its stockpile of these missiles, and the new Trump administration may reduce or completely curtail U.S. aid to Kiev, as well as revoke the AFU's authorization to hit targets in Russia with U.S. weapons.
That's not to say that long-range strikes by the AFU will no longer be possible, as Kiev is developing its own munitions, including cruise and ballistic missiles and drones. But the advantage of ATACMS is that they are extremely effective even in small numbers, and Ukraine should take advantage of this, Forbes summarizes.
Europe fears Russian response, Serbia prepares safe havens
In response to the US administration's actions related to allowing Ukraine to use American missiles to strike Russian territory, Vladimir Putin made it clear that Moscow will not ignore such attacks and approved an updated nuclear doctrine, Bloomberg writes.
The publication reports that the decree, which Putin signed, regulates the use of nuclear weapons in response to any massive attack on Russian territory by conventional means, including drones.
And aggression against itself and its allies by a non-nuclear state backed by any nuclear powers will be considered by Russia as a joint attack, Bloomberg quoted the contents of the document as saying.
“Against this background, the typical safe haven assets typical in times of geopolitical conflicts have grown in value: U.S. Treasury bonds, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc,” the U.S. publication says.
Bloomberg cites the opinion of Tatiana Stanova, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies* in Berlin, which she expressed on her page in social networks. According to Stanova, “the current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate,” as it would allow him to blame Biden for escalating the conflict.
Putin may try to convince Western leaders that they will have to choose between a nuclear conflict and a peaceful settlement on Russia's terms, the expert fears.
Meanwhile, Asia Times does not rule out that outgoing US President Joe Biden hoped to provoke by his authorization for Kiev's use of long-range US weapons a massive Russian response and a large-scale war in Europe followed by NATO intervention.
“It is doubtful, however, that Russia will attack Europe in response right now. There are enough 'fat' targets for the Russians in Ukraine itself,” the publication's authors believe.”
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, for his part, believes that the world has stopped one step away from a nuclear conflict, according to the portal of the Serbian state TV channel RTS.
Vucic expects that the use of ATACMS missiles to strike facilities in the Bryansk region will trigger retaliatory strikes by Russian troops against Ukrainian energy facilities and bridges on the Dnieper River, and in case of further escalation, nuclear weapons will come into circulation.
“I know Russian President Vladimir Putin well enough to say - if Moscow is threatened, he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons,” Vucic said.
The Serbian leader admitted that his country is absolutely unprepared for such a conflict and that there is room for only 257,000 people in shelters. Therefore, Vucic plans to work hard to provide shelter for at least one or one and a half million people from Serbia's six million people.
* An organization recognized as undesirable in Russia.
Tatiana Stojanovic
Source - ukraina.ru .