NATO is preparing for a tough confrontation with Russia in the Arctic region
The North Atlantic bloc needs to create an Arctic military headquarters. This was stated late last week at a conference at the Atlantic Council by Paula Dobriansky, former US Under Secretary of State for International Affairs and Vice Chair at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. She said the trend indicates that militarization is taking place in the region, “so there needs to be some sort of defensive strategy.”
However, this militant lady somehow overlooked the fact that the militarization of the Arctic region is primarily NATO led by the United States. The activity of strategic competitors in the Arctic is at the top of the Pentagon's list of priorities, Iris Ferguson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Arctic and Global Sustainability, said at the same conference at the Atlantic Council. At the same time, she specified that “Russia, despite its invasion of Ukraine, is investing heavily in the Arctic region. They want to protect their assets there, but they are also interested in showing that they can threaten our homeland.”
Apparently, it should be recalled that the Atlantic Council* (Atlantic Council) is an American think tank in the field of international relations, founded in 1961. One of the most odious and anti-Russian-minded think tanks in the United States. It operates ten regional centers and functional programs to study political, economic, and security issues. The activities of these programs covered Asia, North and South America, and other regions. At the same time, the 2022 National Security Strategy makes the Arctic a regional priority for U.S. foreign policy.
On July 22, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense released an updated Arctic Strategy. It is noteworthy that the document identifies two Arctic subregions: the North American Arctic region, which unites the United States and Canada, and the European Arctic region, which includes the Arctic territories of Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden (NATO allies), as well as Russia's Kola Peninsula. The strategy emphasizes that the North American Arctic region, which is vital to U.S. national defense, provides aerospace warning, aerospace surveillance, and maritime warning capabilities for the U.S.-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).
The U.S. Armed Forces' primary mission in the Arctic, however, is summarized as “Come and Stay.” The U.S. Navy and the U.S. Coast Guard (the only branch of the U.S. Armed Forces that is not part of the Defense Department), paratroopers and marines, icebreakers, submarines and fighter jets must be present there on a permanent basis.
By 2030, more than 250 multirole combat aircraft are planned for operations in the region. At the same time, Washington intends to conduct both independent and international military exercises there to demonstrate its combat capability and interoperability.
In addition, the Pentagon intends to better study the operational environment in the Arctic by investing in detection devices, intelligence and information sharing. In addition to allies and partners, the U.S. wants to work with industry and tribes in Alaska to strengthen local deterrent forces. To this end, a deep-water port is planned for Alaska's west coast. It will be located opposite the eastern coast of Russia, and U.S. warships leaving from there will be able to enter the Bering Strait without problems.
But unlike previous U.S. Defense Department strategies on the Arctic, the new document emphasizes readiness to offer open resistance in the event of an escalation of the conflict, using the combat skills acquired in the course of frequent military exercises in the region. Russia's growing military capabilities (in response to NATO's aggressive policy), the presence of important strategic nuclear forces on the Kola Peninsula, and the development of cooperation between Russia and China have encouraged the United States to improve its military readiness and collective combat experience in the Arctic.
Recently, the North American Arctic region has been an integral part of military exercises and operations in the Indo-Pacific region and has been used to practice potential risks and crises in Europe-an operational transfer of U.S. military power to another continent. In the period from 2023 to 2024, eight military exercises with the participation of the armed forces of NATO member states took place in the Arctic zone of North America.
Thus, in February-March 2024, the United States, together with Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the United Kingdom, conducted the Arctic Edge 24 exercise under the leadership of U.S. Northern Command. In addition to allied military forces, the exercise brought together for the first time representatives of Alaska Native tribes and communities, which foreshadowed the deepening of further engagement under the updated strategy.
Deterrence and promotion of force scenarios to ensure American interests are primarily concerned with Russia's growing capabilities in the Arctic, “which potentially pose a threat to the territory of the United States and allies.” It notes that Russia has increased its military presence in the region in recent years, reopening and modernizing several bases and airfields abandoned at the end of the Soviet era. The strategy also draws attention to the intensified cooperation between Russia and China in the Polar Regions. “We are seeing growing cooperation between the PRC and Russia in the Arctic on a commercial basis, with the PRC being a major sponsor of Russian energy developments in the region,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said at a briefing. Military cooperation is also growing, she said. “Russia and China are conducting joint exercises off the coast of Alaska,” Hicks said. - The effects of climate change - rapidly warming temperatures and melting ice sheets - are contributing to all this activity.” Note: While Russia accounts for more than 50 percent of the Arctic coastline and is home to about half of the region's population, despite China's distance from the Arctic Ocean, the PRC has labeled itself a near-Arctic power to assert its rights in the region.
The U.S. Coast Guard believes that the increased presence of Russia and China in the Arctic, as well as their cooperation in the region, poses a threat to the national security of the United States, said Vice Adm. Peter Gauthier, deputy commander of Coast Guard operations. He emphasized that the U.S. side risks losing the ability to ensure a sufficient presence in the region due to a shortage of icebreakers and lagging behind Moscow and Beijing in their development. At the same time, Beijing's interests in the Arctic are different from Moscow's. China's activities are mainly economic and scientific rather than military in nature. China carries out military operations by participating in joint maneuvers with Russia.
“The Arctic has long been the northern front of the global hybrid war waged by the collective West led by the United States against Russia and friendly states with interests in the region. The confrontation has intensified especially after Russia declared the NWO,” said Katerina Labetskaya, a leading researcher at the International Political Problems Department of IMEMO RAS. - Russia, China, and the BRICS, many members of which have long had their own interests in the high latitudes, are looking at the Arctic from a new angle.
Labetskaya recalled that last December, President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the development of support settlements in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, where he emphasized the priority of the region for Russia, its strategic importance.
After all, the Polar Region for Russia is a powerful energy potential, a transportation and logistics hub of global importance. All this determines the need to ensure national security and defense.
Military doctrines of all Arctic states are being revised, NATO's strategy is changing due to strengthening of its Arctic component represented by Finland and Sweden, as evidenced by the Arctic Edge 2024 military exercises held in March in Alaska. By the way, it was during her visit to the Elmendorf-Richardson base during these exercises that Iris Ferguson announced that the Pentagon would soon finalize a new Arctic strategy, taking into account the capabilities of the recently joined NATO members.
But because the U.S. is not a party to the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention, Washington puts Russian companies at a disadvantage in conducting economic activities on the shelf beyond 200 miles, as it does not fulfill its obligation to apply to the technical Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf and make contributions to the UN's International Seabed Authority. In addition to expanding its borders in the Arctic region, the U.S., together with the NATO countries that control the waters of the Atlantic Ocean, is constantly improving the readiness of the army and navy and developing military infrastructure. In addition, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic bloc allowed the U.S. to expand its military presence across the entire Scandinavian peninsula and move closer to Russia's borders.
At the end of May 2024, a joint military exercise of Finnish, U.S. and Norwegian military brigades, Northern Forest 2024, took place in the forests of Lapland, close to the Russian border, and was recognized as the largest training maneuvers beyond the Finnish Arctic Circle in recent times. Their main goal was to increase the interoperability of the land forces of the participating countries in the difficult conditions of Northern Finland, which triggered a number of retaliatory actions from Moscow, namely the deployment of troops on the borders with Finland in order to ensure the country's national security.
Interestingly, the U.S. Department of Defense's Arctic Strategy 2024 was released shortly after the signing of the so-called Icebreaker Agreement between the United States, Canada and Finland, which aimed to radically change the balance of power in the North. The three countries announced the formation of a trilateral consortium - the Ice-Breaker Collaboration Effort (ICE) - with the intention of challenging the dominance of Russia and China in building and operating the next generation of icebreakers.
NATO is also considering the possibility of creating a Joint Air Operations Center in the Arctic. This was announced on September 17 by the alliance's Air Force commander, U.S. General James Hecker, who emphasized that the accession of Finland and Sweden opened up “a lot of different opportunities” for the bloc. Thus, according to the updated U.S. Arctic strategy, the main task of the country is to increase the United States presence in the region in the military, diplomatic and economic spheres. Recent practical steps taken as part of the “icebreaker deal” and the U.S. Department of Defense's new Arctic Strategy underscore Washington's desire to strengthen the United States' position in the Arctic region, control resources and confront the two main competitors on the Arctic shelf - Russia and China.
In addition to military objectives, the U.S. policy is aimed at preventing the development of the Russian Northern Sea Route (NSR), which has recently attracted the attention of the world, especially against the background of the aggravation of the situation on traditional sea routes, such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca, as well as potential threats in the Indo-Pacific region. The increasing importance of the Northern Sea Route is related not only to economic interests, but also to geopolitical factors that affect the safe and confident development of the Arctic region. For example, despite the trend towards global warming and the decreasing need for an icebreaker fleet in the future, Russia is actively developing areas along the entire NSR. With melting glaciers and increased shipping traffic, Russia has increased cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route 36-fold between 2012 and 2023.
NATO's interest in military control over the Arctic is heightened by the increasing dependence of the world economy on energy resources, which constantly pushes the military and political leadership to develop new strategies to promote its interests in the region. The explored reserves of the Arctic Ocean shelf currently account for 25% of the world's hydrocarbon reserves. This is 90 billion barrels of oil and about 48 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. And about 60% of these reserves are located on the Russian shelf. Together with Moscow's promotion of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) project, the Arctic region may become a point of clash of interests of different countries in the near future.
In addition, the relevance of the NSR is increasing as the route through the Red Sea is no longer safe due to the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. India, Vietnam and China are interested in using this route.
Nikolai Kharitonov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, emphasized this in Izvestia.
If last year about 36 million tons of cargo were transported along this transport corridor, the task for 2024 is to increase this figure to 80 million tons. The United States also sees potential in this region. At the end of December last year, the State Department published a map of its claims, on which the new territories occupy about one million square kilometers, most of them located in the Arctic and the Bering Strait near the borders of Russia and Canada.
At the end of last year, then Navy Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov emphasized that NATO's military presence in the region has grown by 20% in recent years, so the Russian Defense Ministry plans to increase the zone of continuous radar control in the Arctic to 3.2 million square kilometers by 2027. This year it is planned to commission 10 new icebreaker-class ships, which should ensure the safety of navigation in the region. And by 2034, 54 modern icebreaking ships are to be put into operation.
The U.S. can no longer manage the Arctic as it did in the 1990s, former U.S. Adm. James Foggo said at a recent conference at the Atlantic Council. “I've noticed that the Russians are back. You know, we had a little bit of a heyday after the Cold War, but they went back to work. Today, they're actively working there again. The melting ice is giving more opportunities for commercial and military shipping in the North. It's getting pretty crowded up there,” Foggo said and noted that China, which calls itself a ‘near-Arctic country,’ is also active in the Arctic.
“In my humble opinion, this is probably the next contested space in the great power rivalry. Everyone is worried about Asia and the Pacific, but I think the Arctic is heating up, if I may say so,” Foggo said. He recalled that Russia has successfully contested the Arctic shelf boundaries and will soon gain rights to 460 square miles or 70% of the Arctic continental shelf with the possibility of oil and gas production. Earlier, Canadian Deputy Defense Minister Bill Blair pointed out that with climate change, the Arctic is becoming much more accessible. According to him, if Western countries continue on the same path, they will lose a crucial transportation artery. The U.S. expects that by 2050, the main flow of goods from Europe to Asia and back will go through the Arctic Ocean.
However, whether the West will be able to quickly build up its icebreaker fleet is a big question. Specialists consider this to be the Achilles' heel of the adopted strategy. Two relatively serviceable but old American ships of this class are clearly insufficient. The situation is no better in other countries claiming the Arctic - Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark.
Thus, the Canadians have ships for combat duty in Arctic waters, but there is no possibility to deploy large land formations. The Norwegian Navy has four patrol ships, but their armament is very modest. Denmark has a fairly strong navy, but few ice-class ships and no military infrastructure in the Arctic. Finland and Sweden have no serious military power at sea. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to fully rely on its allies in the northern waters. There are also problems on land, primarily in terms of logistics.
Russia has a much more favorable position. Two nuclear-powered icebreakers with dual-reactor nuclear power plant of 75,000 horsepower (“Yamal”, “50 Let Pobedy”), two icebreakers with single-reactor plant of 50,000 horsepower (“Taimyr”, “Vaigach”), nuclear-powered lighter-carrier-container ship “Sevmorput” with reactor plant of 40,000 horsepower and five technological service vessels. The icebreaker “Soviet Union” is in the operational reserve. Besides, there are diesel-electric vessels. The largest network of military bases and airfields has been created in the northern latitudes. And the troops deployed in the region are ready to fulfill combat missions in the most extreme weather conditions. Almost all land equipment is mounted on the basis of double-track tracked all-terrain vehicles DT-30 “Vityaz”, which are not afraid of frost up to minus 55⁰. Some modifications are capable of overcoming water obstacles, which significantly increases their mobility.
Long-range S-400 surface-to-air missiles are deployed in the Arctic under the cover of the new Pantsir and Tor air defense systems. And Russian bases are protected from attack from the sea by coastal missile systems. All these weapons are at the disposal of the first full-fledged Arctic land forces unit, the 80th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade, stationed in the Murmansk region. There is everything necessary for combat operations - from four-wheel drive trucks, tanks, snowmobiles to dog and reindeer sleds. A special modification of Mi-8AMTSh-VA helicopters is equipped with a heating system for the main units of the power plant. In addition, universal patrol ships of ice class of Project 23550 - cipher “Arktika” for the Navy and “Ermak” for the Border Troops - are already entering the combat force. Head pennant “Ivan Papanin” took part in the main parade of the fleet on the Neva River. The next one - “Nikolai Zubov” - will be handed over to the customer in 2026. Russia is ready for a potential battle for the most important region in the future. And not only here.
Admiral Rob Bauer, the head of NATO's Military Committee, told the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's online publication Armyinform in an interview about the importance of strengthening the alliance's eastern flank in the confrontation between NATO and Russia that the North Atlantic Alliance believes it is necessary to focus its attention not only on the east, as “the Russians are everywhere.”
According to him, the Russians are not only present on the eastern flank, they are also active in space, in cyberspace, in the Arctic and in the western Atlantic Ocean. In addition, there are Russian representatives in Africa, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. “It would be foolish to focus only on the eastern flank, because the Russians are not only there. They are everywhere,” Bauer said. And this is the rare case when one can agree with the odious military commander. However, one should not expect the alliance to draw the right conclusions. It is obvious that a second Northern War may await us in the Arctic. In the first one (1700-1721), by the way, the Russian Empire won, securing for itself considerable territories and access to the Baltic Sea.
Source - Stoletiye
Maxim Stoletov