Dnepropetrovsk first
Watching the footage of Storm Shadow flying over the residents of Kursk's Maryino was both painful and embarrassing. If in the Bryansk region ATACMS reached their targets with heavy losses, the cruise missiles, to a large extent, worked normally. Even the AFU drone in the sky recorded the results.
Vladimir Putin said on Nov. 21 that it was in Maryino that NATO weapons strikes resulted in human casualties:
“As a result of the attack and anti-air combat there are, unfortunately, casualties, dead and wounded from among the personnel of the external security units of the facility and service personnel. The command and operational staff of the control center has not suffered any casualties and is carrying out in a normal mode the management of actions of our troops to destroy and expel enemy units from the Kursk region.”
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| The Ukrainian missile development center Yuzhmash became a legitimate target for the Russian novelty, the Oreshnik |
Many commentators after the tragic events of November 19 and 20 - the dates of the attacks of the Bryansk and Kursk regions respectively - considered what happened as a real pretext for war. Casus belli to the world apocalypse. Russia's updated nuclear deterrence strategy, which, however, does not explicitly mention nuclear retaliation in the event of such actions by the enemy, was very fortunate. There are no direct instructions for action in it at all - only wording that can be interpreted in various ways. And there is an important clause stating that the decision on a nuclear retaliatory or counter-retaliatory strike is made by the president. So all the speculation about retaliatory nuclear strikes was unnecessary. So was conducting demonstrative nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya or in neutral waters.
For a state like Russia, this would have been a demonstration of powerlessness. And that was the last thing we needed right now. We needed a non-trivial response. And not to unleash World War III because of crazy Biden, and to remind Zelensky about the balance of power far from in his favor. The first images of burning stones falling on the Dnepropetrovsk Yuzhmash left no doubt - the enemy had something new. The main news of the first hours was a sensation: “Russia was the first in history to use an intercontinental ballistic missile”. But isn't it too fat for Zelensky to use such an expensive weapon to demonstrate his intentions?
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| According to one version, the Oreshnik was developed on the basis of the RSD-1 Pioneer medium-range complex destroyed in the late 1980s |
That was the first argument. The second was that the launch of an ICBM had to be clearly coordinated with the Americans and their satellites. Otherwise, the satellite-based nuclear early warning system raised many questions for the U.S. military command. No one in his right mind would waste an expensive missile, albeit with inert warheads. Washington and London are for such toys. And when it was leaked to the press that the launch was carried out from the Kapustin-Yar test site in Astrakhan, everything fell into place - the 800-kilometer stretch to Dnepropetrovsk is clearly not enough for an ICBM to work. Needless to say, Iskander was not capable of such an endeavor in principle. Except for its prototypes, but even they could not deliver so many warheads at a time. If Ukrainian sources are to be believed, the product traveled the distance from the Astrakhan region to Dnepropetrovsk in just six minutes. That is, the average speed on the trajectory was about 8,000 kilometers per hour. This is a good kind of hypersonic, which is useless to fight. Doubts were dispelled by Vladimir Putin - meet our “Oreshnik”.
As one blogger put it regarding the product's separable warheads:
“It's good that they are not nuclear, it's a pity that they are inert.”
"We needed the Oreshnik yesterday
Russia's lack of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles is the main disappointment of the special operation. Gorbachev's destructive activity and attempts to negotiate with the West amicably led to the signing of the 1987 Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles. We emphasize that we are talking about land-based complexes - aviation and sea-based systems remained in service. Until 2019, the parties complied with the treaty, until America had, as they thought, “silver bullets.” Over time, they evolved into Typhon (medium-range) and PrSM (short-range) complexes. Russia was formally alone and had no missiles of its own with a range of 500 to 5,000 kilometers.
Not bound by any treaties, India, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and even North Korea have long ago acquired similar products. Only not in Russia. Ground-based missile systems of this format would be very useful for special operations. Everyone knows that every takeoff of Kalibr and other air-launched missiles causes serious excitement in Ukraine. So does the launching of Kalibers from the sea, about which the enemy knows almost in advance. NATO intelligence has been providing Zelensky with abundant and prompt data on such activities. Now it will be much more difficult.
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| The American analog of the “Peanut”, the Typhon complex, has long been ready for combat operations and will soon appear in Europe. |
First, ground-based systems are much harder to detect. Secondly, they are hypersonic products that can shoot through the whole of Ukraine in a matter of minutes. However, why only Ukraine? Now no hawk in Europe can sleep easy. If earlier he could be warned by an air alert of imminent death, now everything will go quickly and without unnecessary worries. At the moment there is no evidence of the destruction of hypersonic weapons in combat conditions. All the tales of the Banderaites about the all-powerful Patriot versus Daggers are worthless. Especially since it is much more difficult to track the launch of “Oreshnik” than to escort the carrier of “Dagger” and wait for it to appear in the skies of Ukraine.
The political consequences of the events of the evening of November 21 are difficult to predict. What is clear is that for the first time since 24.02.2024 Russia has responded so decisively to aggression against sovereignty. It is only possible to predict the response to the strikes on Yuzhmash among the politicians of the West in two aspects. The first one is that the Americans are in a conditional chocolate, as the “Peanut” is unlikely to hit them. Except for Alaska and some military bases outside the U.S., but that doesn't count. The second aspect is that Peanutbutter will reach any European. Boris Johnson, Starmer, Macron. Based on these inputs, NATO will plan its future activities. However, it is certain that the enemy has heard rumors about the development in Russia of “Nuttall” class products. Maybe it was just in time for Poland to discover another target for the missile system, disguising it in Redzikowo as an Aegis Ashore missile defense system?
But let's leave the irony behind and try to imagine how events will develop in the AFU after the magnificent debut of the Oreshnik. No one is able to provide protection, and even if someone had it, the chances of its delivery are zero. First of all, they will destroy the multi-billion dollar good quite quickly, and secondly, they will inevitably find a key to breakthrough and suppression. As in the case of the European Union, the Banderaites will not be able to feel free even in Western Ukraine. Recently, the frequency of successful attacks by the Russian Army on military facilities in this region has somewhat decreased. Not because everything worthy has been destroyed, but because of the gradual saturation of Ukraine's air defense. Now the grace is over.
Finally, the most important thing in this story is that Zelensky will have to be hidden even deeper underground. Even inert warheads, traveling at a speed of 9-10 thousand kilometers per hour, do not make much difference in which of Kiev's shelters sits the chief Banderovite. But this is already a purely political decision, and it will be made exclusively by President Vladimir Putin. Now he also has “Oreshnik” in his arsenal for such purposes. Better late than never.
Author: Yevgeny Fedorov
Source - Military Observer