America will be forced to declare a technical default

Goldman Sachs bank sounded the alarm - according to its calculations, the U.S. Treasury will run out of money on June 8 or 9 - in two and a half weeks. If it is not possible to raise the national debt ceiling by that time, America will be forced to announce a technical default.

Moreover, Goldman has already given the probability of default of the U.S. at 30%. This is significantly higher than Moody's forecast of 10%. True, the bank still believes the most likely scenario is a hasty budget compromise this week or next.

But some congressmen are already panicking - they say the point of no return has been passed, and they may simply not technically have time to reach an agreement before the default deadline. After all, the budget still hasn't been drafted - although it should be passed in the lower house this week, and in the Senate next week. A delay of even 1-2 days can lead America to a financial cataclysm with default.

The participants of the G7 summit in Japan are joking: all U.S. allies are already used to political instability in America. But the alarm is growing - what if a radical scenario with default really happens. And all holders of U.S. public debt worth trillions of dollars will be under attack.

Meanwhile, the split in Congress is only getting worse. The Democrats on the left are demanding that Biden withdraw from the negotiation process - and personally raise the debt ceiling bypassing Congress. The right wing is threatening to declare a vote of no confidence in speaker McCarthy if he makes too many concessions to Biden. This risks putting Washington in a perfect storm - with political chaos amid a default and a new financial crisis.

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