The probability of super-eruption of a large volcano over 5 years is more than 95%


Although most people believe that Vesuvius (AD 79 – the eruption of Pompeii), Mount St. Helens (1980) and Mount Pinatubo (1991) were huge, they are very small compared to ancient eruptions, such like Springs, Toba, Yellowstone or Long Valley Caldera. The likelihood that any of the major volcanoes will erupt with maximum power is 95%

Yes, some volcanic eruptions are thousands or even a million times more explosive than others. Almost 30 years have passed since the last volcanic eruption of the VEI 5+ level (Mount Pinatubo, 1991, VEI 6), and the likelihood that a volcanic eruption with a capacity of VEI 5+ will occur over the next 5 years now is more than 95%.


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