A study published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters analyzed weather data for 15 years. They were obtained using an atmospheric infrared probe (AIRS) over tropical oceans.
It turned out that extreme storms (including the most powerful downpours on land), as a rule, occur more often at higher temperatures of sea water. The researchers found that when the ocean temperature rises by a couple of degrees, 21% more storms are formed.
It is no secret that thunderstorms usually occur in the warmest time of the year, but new data provide the first quantitative estimate of the growth of their number, at least for tropical regions. It was possible to calculate that by the end of the century the temperature of the ocean surface could rise by 5 degrees due to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The study notes that climate models are not ideal and are not 100% accurate, but they can be a guide for the actions of humanity. Earlier, WHO reported an estimated increase in mortality of 250,000 per year from 2030 to 2050 due to this type of problem. However, a new study considers this a “conservative estimate.”
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